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The recent military escalation between Israel and Iran, particularly following Israel's attacks on Iranian refineries, gas fields, and other critical infrastructure, has not only heightened regional instability but also presented a new stress test for China's foreign policy in the Middle East. This episode highlights Beijing's structural dilemmas: balancing energy security, regional stability, and soft power projection without compromising its economic relationship with the United States and its commercial interests with the West.

Historically, China maintained a cautious distance from Middle Eastern conflicts, limiting its involvement primarily to economic and energy matters. However, over the past two decades—particularly since the rise of Xi Jinping—Beijing has adopted a more assertive and multifaceted strategy.

This new profile includes:

1. Strategic bilateral partnerships with key players such as Iran, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt;
2. Growing participation in multilateral forums, such as the China-Arab States Cooperation Forum (CASCF) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO);
3. Expanding investments through the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI);
4. More recently, a more visible diplomatic posture has been demonstrated in China's mediation between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023.

The central driver of China's presence in the region remains energy security. Approximately 50% of China's imported oil comes from the Middle East, with Iran and Saudi Arabia being key suppliers.

The potential blockade of the Strait of Hormuz or any disruption along the Red Sea and Suez Canal routes represents a direct threat to Beijing's strategic interests. The recent Israeli offensive has further highlighted this vulnerability.

Analysts from the Institut pour la Paix et la Diplomatie point out that any prolonged disruption along these routes could undermine China's energy security and the foundations of its global logistics connectivity strategy promoted through the BRI.

China has intensified its public and back-channel diplomacy in response to the escalating crisis. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi reached out to his Iranian and Israeli counterparts, explicitly condemning the Israeli attacks as a violation of Iran's sovereignty and territorial integrity, according to reports from CNN, Reuters, and Xinhua.

Beijing also reaffirmed its willingness to "play a constructive role in seeking a peaceful solution" while maintaining a careful rhetorical balance, calling on both parties to engage in dialogue.

This stance reflects what the International Relations literature has termed "active neutrality": a combination of public defense of principles (sovereignty, non-intervention, peaceful resolution of conflicts) with the preservation of diplomatic channels with all involved actors, avoiding drastic ruptures with any major player.

Another constraint on China's actions is the risk of secondary U.S. sanctions. Washington has already imposed sanctions on Chinese entities for oil trade with Iran and for supplying chemical components for Iran's defense industry.

Given Beijing's ongoing efforts to stabilize its trade relations with the United States, any excessive alignment with Tehran could jeopardize critical ongoing bilateral negotiations, including on trade and technology.

As a result, China continues to limit its engagement to diplomatic and declarative channels, avoiding actions that could be interpreted as operational support for Iran.

The current Israel-Iran conflict reaffirms a structural dilemma in China's Middle East diplomacy:
On one hand, China is pressured by its energy needs, logistical vulnerabilities, and desire to assert itself as a responsible global power.

On the other hand, direct involvement carries high geopolitical and economic costs, especially regarding its relationship with the United States and its commercial vulnerabilities.

In the coming months, the likely trend will be a more visible rhetorical stance for peaceful public diplomatic gestures, but without substantial changes to its strategic caution.

Beijing will thus continue to navigate between the imperatives of economic realism and the symbolic demands of an emerging power, always seeking to minimize risks and maximize its diplomatic maneuvering space while safeguarding its overriding priority: the security of its energy sources.

The opinions expressed in this article do not reflect the institutional position of Observa China 观中国 and are the sole responsibility of the author.